Zolik Duong
ESLA 1984
12/1/2009
Swine Flu Could Cause Up to 90,000 U.S. Deaths
In this article, the author gives the report about H1N1 virus, the number of people who can infect in H1N1, and some measures to prevent the H1N1 virus. As know as swine flu virus, H1N1 can infect 30 to 50% American and may gives 30,000 to 90,000 deaths. Coming with seasonal flu, H1N1 will give more death cases and give hard time to intensive care units. Unfortunately, the H1N1 vaccine is not ready yet, and it will take several weeks to develop immunity. Moreover, the vaccine might give some more bad effect. The report also gives some recommendations for the government about preventing of H1N1. There is no vaccination campaign until the trial vaccine is complete. Pregnant women, health care workers and parents or guardians of infants under 6 months of age, adults under the age of 65 with an underlying health condition are considered to be more at risk from the H1N1 virus. More than 1490 people around the world are died because of H1N1.
I chose this article because H1N1 is a huge epidemic on the world right now. In my country, among 90 people were died because of H1N1. I took the H1N1 vaccine about 3 days ago, but I didn’t know that the vaccine can just give the effect until several weeks after the second shot. I work at Dulles airport, that’s why they give me the benefit to take that vaccine sooner than others. However, the chance of infect in H1N1 is still high there. Moreover, I already read some news said that they don’t have enough vaccine for everyone. After taking a shot, I still worry about H1N1, especially for my family.
Article: Swine flu could cause up to 90,000 U.S. deaths
WASHINGTON (CNN) — The H1N1 flu virus could cause up to 90,000 U.S. deaths, mainly among children and young adults, if it resurges this fall as expected, according to a report released Monday by a presidential advisory panel.
The report urges speedier production of the H1N1 vaccine and the availability of some doses by September.
The H1N1 virus, commonly known as swine flu virus, could infect between 30 percent and 50 percent of the American population during the fall and winter and lead to as many as 1.8 million U.S. hospital admissions, the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology reported.
The report says 30,000 to 90,000 deaths are projected as part of a “plausible scenario” involving large outbreaks at schools, inadequate antiviral supplies and the virus peaking before vaccinations have time to be effective.
Up to 40,000 U.S. deaths are linked to seasonal flu each year, with most of the fatalities occurring among people over 65. With seasonal flu and H1N1, this fall is expected to bring more influenza deaths and place “enormous stress” on intensive care units nationwide, which normally operate near capacity, the report says.
An H1N1 resurgence may happen as early as September, at the beginning of the school year, and infections may peak in mid-October, according to the report. However, the H1N1 vaccine isn’t expected to be available until mid-October, and even then it will take several weeks for vaccinated individuals to develop immunity, the report says. Watch more on H1N1 predictions for this fall »
The potential “mismatch in timing” could significantly diminish the usefulness of the H1N1 vaccine, the report says.
“Even with the best efforts, this will cause some illness, some severe illness and unfortunately, some deaths,” Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Monday.
“But a lot so far has gone remarkably right,” Frieden said. “There’s a vaccine well on its way to being distributed, diagnostic tests available in well over 100 laboratories, treatments pre-positioned around the country … and guidance issued for health care providers, schools, businesses and other communities.”
Among the report’s recommendations are for government agencies to:
• Prepare several “planning scenarios” to determine demand for supplies and care.
• Set up surveillance systems to track information about influenza-like illnesses.
• Develop plans to protect the public’s most vulnerable groups, such as pregnant women and those with pre-existing medical conditions.
• Speed up the production of the H1N1 vaccine and have an initial batch — enough to vaccinate up to 40 million people, especially those who are at risk of serious disease — by mid-September.
Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said the government’s preparation and guidance for the public was based on the need to strike a balance “on a continuum of being paralyzed with fear versus complacency.”
So far, clinical trials for the H1N1 vaccine have not indicated adverse side effects beyond what are experienced with the seasonal flu vaccine, Sebelius said.
However, there would be no formal decision to launch a vaccination campaign until those trials were complete, she said. That decision would be hers, she said, and she emphasized that any vaccination program would be strictly voluntary.
Pregnant women, health care workers and parents or guardians of infants under 6 months of age are among the most vulnerable segments of the population, Sebelius has said.
Adults under the age of 65 with an underlying health condition — such as asthma — are also considered to be more at risk from the H1N1 virus.
H1N1 preparation guidelines for the nation’s businesses and school systems were released three weeks ago. The plans are available at the Web site www.flu.gov.
The H1N1 vaccine would require two shots, the second three weeks after the first. Immunity to the virus would not kick in until two weeks after the second shot.
The World Health Organization declared the H1N1 virus a global pandemic on June 11. More than 1,490 people around the world have died from the virus since it emerged this spring, a WHO official said last week.
